HealthDay News — A new mortality risk prediction tool can help predict death and need for end-of-life care for frail older adults, according to a study published online July 5 in CMAJ, the journal of the Canadian Medical Association.

Amy T. Hsu, Ph.D., from the Bruyère Research Institute in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, and colleagues developed and validated a mortality risk model for older adults with diverse care needs in home care using self-reportable information — the Risk Evaluation for Support: Predictions for Elder-Life in the Community Tool (RESPECT). The analysis included 435,009 adults (≥50 years) with a history of home care use in the derivation cohort and 139,388 in the validation cohort.

The researchers found that within six months of a Resident Assessment Instrument for Home Care assessment in the derivation cohort, there were 122,823 deaths. For six-month mortality risk, the mean was 10.8 percent, but values ranged from 1.54 to 98.1 percent. Estimated median survival ranged from 28 days in the highest-risk group (11 to 84 days at the 25th and 75th percentiles) to more than eight years in the lowest-risk group. In the validation cohort, the algorithm had a c-statistic of 0.753.


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“The RESPECT calculator allows families and their loved ones to plan,” Hsu said in a statement. “For example, it can help an adult child plan when to take a leave of absence from work to be with a parent or decide when to take the last family vacation together.”

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